APEC’S 2023 growth seen at 3.3%, legacy of pandemic still overshadowing outlook

SAN FRANCISCO: Economic growth in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region, which consists of 21 members, is showing signs of improvement, with expected growth of 3.3. per cent in 2023, compared to 2.6 per cent in 2022.

According to the latest APEC Regional Trend Analysis report, a rebound in tourism and domestic consumption is driving economic activity.

However, the legacy of the pandemic, inflation, higher debt, climate change, trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and economic fragmentation continue to overshadow outlook,” the report released by the APEC Policy Support Unit said today ahead of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Week.

“There are promising signs in APEC, but it is walking a tightrope amid downside risks.

“Economic growth in the region remains uneven, though we are looking at a more stable economic growth in the years ahead,” said Carlos Kuriyama, director of the Policy Support Unit.

According to the report, inflation declined to 3.4 per cent in September 2023, compared to the 6.6 per cent rate recorded during the same period last year.

The report noted an uptick in recent months and warned that inflation may aggravate the region’s economy, especially since export restrictions, issues with the fertiliser supply chain and weather conditions are affecting some agricultural products.

APEC economies tighten monetary policy to fight inflation

“To fight stubborn inflation, many APEC economies have been tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates,” said an analyst with the Policy Support Unit and co-author of the report, Rhea C Hernando.

The report highlighted the importance of clear communications from policymakers when it comes to monetary decisions to manage expectations. It also noted that governments need to maintain fiscal prudence with targeted expenditure to protect vulnerable populations and rebuild fiscal buffers.

“High inflation not only causes higher living costs, but it also leads to increased interest rates and amplified uncertainty, which impact investment and consumption as well as debt sustainability. These, in turn, could weaken the post-pandemic economic recovery,” Hernando added.

As a result of a tighter monetary environment around the region, trade suffered a contraction in the first half of 2023, with the volume and value of exports declining to -3.5 per cent and -7.1 per cent, respectively.

Inflationary pressures and the higher cost of trade finance compounded by global uncertainties have resulted in sluggish trade in the region.

“Merchandise trade export and imports are expected to grow slightly by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively in 2023 with a more optimistic growth projection for merchandise trade in 2024 and 2025 at 4.3 to 4.4 per cent,” said a researcher with the Policy Support Unit and co-author of the report, Glacer Nino A Vasquez.

The report further underlined that the future of trade in APEC is clouded by geoeconomic fragmentation and the accumulation of trade-restrictive measures, including trade remedies.

Shifting demographics will also pose a challenge to the region’s economy as the population is getting older and birth rates are falling. This means that workers will have to face a greater burden in supporting a growing elderly population.

“Multilateral coordination remains important for tackling trade protectionism, rising debt, climate change, green economy transition and supply chain disruptions.

“Cooperation is also crucial to address the complex challenges facing the APEC region,” Kuriyama concluded.–Bernama

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