NEW YORK: Some of US president Donald Trump’s major policy decisions have been preceded by well-timed bets, leading some experts to raise questions about whether information had somehow leaked ahead of time.
Here is a list.
March 23, 2026 – Iran attack pause:
An unidentified trader or traders bet US$500 million on Brent and WTI crude futures in a one-minute period shortly before Trump announced a five-day delay to attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, after which oil prices crashed 15%, exchange data and Reuters calculations showed.
LSEG data shows 5,100 lots changed hands between 10.49am and 10.50am, with selling dominating volume.
When Trump’s social media post announcing the move hit at 11.05am, over 13,000 lots – equivalent to 13 million barrels – traded in 60 seconds, causing Brent to fall to US$99 per barrel from US$112 and sending WTI down to US$86 per barrel from US$99.
Feb 28, 2026 – Iran strikes that killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Wagers placed on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi before the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intensified scrutiny of prediction markets, with Democratic lawmakers calling for a ban on bets tied to military actions that could reward those with privileged information.
According to a Reuters review of Polymarket’s website at the time, about US$529 million was wagered on a range of contracts tied to the timing of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, while another US$150 million was staked on Khamenei’s removal as supreme leader.
Prediction markets offer tradable yes-or-no contracts that let users wager on a broad array of real-world events.
Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts that made a combined US$1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets that were funded in the hours immediately before the raids, which took place on Feb 28.
US Representative Mike Levin of California flagged one specific Polymarket bet placed shortly before the Iran strikes.
Separately, despite hotter-than-expected inflation data that would typically prompt investors to sell long-dated Treasuries, traders moved in the opposite direction on Feb 27, pushing yields on the benchmark 10-year note below 4%.
Analysts said such a pronounced shift into the safe-haven asset would usually be driven by a negative macro event – or a strong expectation that one was imminent.
Shares of US airlines also fell that day as oil prices rose, with the Dow Jones US Airlines Index slipping 5.13%.
Jan 3, 2026 – US capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro
An unknown trader pocketed a profit of roughly US$410,000 after wagering on the ouster of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January.
The trader’s account on Polymarket built up positions in contracts tied to Maduro’s removal on terms that implied long odds before the weekend raid of Maduro’s compound in Caracas by US special forces.
Those wagers, worth about US$34,000 prior to his capture, surged in value after news of the US military operation emerged on Jan 3.
April 9, 2025 – Tariff pause:
Unidentified options traders staked millions of dollars on a US stock market rebound in the minutes before Trump’s tariff pause announcement triggered a massive rally in April last year, according to trading data.
Trump’s Truth Social post pausing tariffs came at 1.18pm on April 9, setting off a 9.5% jump for the S&P 500.
Market data shows certain options contracts logging a spike in trading activity ahead of it.
Some 5,105 SPY call options traded at around 1pm for an average price of US$4.20.
When stocks rallied, those calls soared as high as around US$42, turning US$2.14 million into about US$21.44 million on paper.
Similarly, other SPY calls betting on the ETF rising above US$509 traded at around 1.10pm ; their value jumped to about US$10 million by end of day, up from US$624,000.
Reuters could not determine whether the calls were all purchased or sold by one trader or several and whether they closed the position for a gain.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said government ethics guidelines bar federal employees from profiting off nonpublic information.
“Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible,” he said in an emailed statement.
Lucrative bets that anticipated Trump’s policy surprises warrant scrutiny, experts say.
