PETALING JAYA: Analysts warn that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim cannot afford to underestimate Perikatan Nasional despite the opposition coalition’s internal turmoil, and should hold off on calling a snap GE16.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara and Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said that, despite infighting between PAS and Bersatu and factional tensions within Bersatu itself, PN continues to command the bulk of Malay support.
Azmi said Malay voters are unlikely to be put off to such an extent as to switch support from PN to Pakatan Harapan, although Barisan Nasional may benefit slightly.
This was why Anwar has little incentive to call for GE16 this year, he said.
“I think Anwar realises that now is not a good time to call for GE16, because the transfer of votes (from PN) to PH will not happen, or even if it does, it would be minimal,“ he told FMT.
Fauzi said it remains to be seen whether Umno supporters would back PH in GE16, especially in one-on-one contests with PN, particularly after several kerfuffles with DAP.
He added that although Bersatu had been expected to falter in the 2022 general election, the party, aided by PAS, managed to attract a significant share of Umno voters, securing 31 parliamentary seats.
He said calling for a snap election would be a calculated risk.
“The government should definitely strike when the iron is hot, but if PN manages to convince Umno voters that their party has indeed betrayed the Malay cause by continuing to ally with DAP, the unity government might still have to brace for some electoral surprises.”
The next nationwide polls must be held no later than February 2028, while the Melaka and Johor state polls must take place by February and June 2027, respectively.
DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook previously called for GE16 to be held concurrently with the Melaka and Johor state elections, to save costs and make it easier for voters in the two states.
Conditions ripe for GE16?
Fauzi said holding GE16 at the end of this year to coincide with the Melaka and Johor polls would be deemed “normal” since the Madani administration would have completed four years in office by then.
He added that holding the elections concurrently would also reduce government expenditure and suggest prudent money management by the Madani administration.
“So if conditions are ripe, as reflected especially in positive economic indicators, there’s no reason to delay it for too long once the four-year mark has been reached.
“Assuming that Anwar may not stay on to defend the PH-BN alliance in four to five years’ time, the government should make the most of his presence now, capitalising on his global stature and economic achievements.
“It is a gamble worth taking, so as to continue the Madani vision,” said Fauzi.
However, Azmi said that despite positive economic indicators, including the stronger ringgit, there were negative sentiments surrounding Malaysia’s reciprocal trade deal with the US, which Putrajaya is looking to renegotiate.
“I think PH still has time to make some adjustments to boost the people’s confidence in the government, after which would be the right time to call for GE16; perhaps at the end of next year.”
Melaka, Johor the litmus tests
Azmi does not foresee GE16 being held simultaneously with the Melaka and Johor polls, as the two states are led by BN and likely to be taken as litmus tests for PH-BN cooperation before the general election.
He expects Melaka to hold its state polls first, followed by Johor, allowing tweaks in alliances to be made and tested prior to GE16.
“If the Melaka election proceeds first, then Johor (Umno) can make the necessary adjustments for its campaign.”
BN romped to a strong victory in the 2021 Melaka polls, winning 21 seats while PH took five and PN two.
It continued its strong performance in the Johor state election the following year, garnering 40 seats to PH’s 12, PN (three) and Muda (one).
