Some 27 years ago, when Anwar Ibrahim was given a black eye in prison, demonised and shamed, Umno played the role of the mighty bully.
At the time, the president of Umno appeared more powerful than the king and the constitution itself. No one dared challenge the party. Everyone else wanted to be its friend, and most were content to remain subservient.
Fast forward to today, and Umno has hit rock bottom — not once, but on three separate occasions.
The first came in 2018, when Pakatan Harapan’s victory left Umno in disarray and triggered a frantic search for scapegoats to shoulder the blame for its monumental defeat.
The second low point followed when Dr Mahathir Mohamad enticed a large number of Umno MPs to defect to Bersatu, swelling its parliamentary ranks and leaving Umno weakened and fearful.
The third arrived in the final days of 2025, when the once-mighty party remained conspicuously silent as Najib’s 1MDB verdict was delivered. I had expected the usual bravado from Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh, a staunch Najib ally and vocal critic of the unity government — but none came.
This silence raises an important question: is there anyone who will still dance with Umno, despite the baggage it carries?
Partnering with Umno today risks reputational damage, as several of its leaders have been charged, convicted or conditionally discharged for corruption. Yet, some argue: if Anwar could make a comeback after incarceration, why not Najib?
But comparing Anwar’s and Najib’s cases is akin to comparing apples to oranges.
Anwar was unceremoniously sacked from both government and party, disappearing entirely from the scene. Najib, by contrast, despite resigning as Umno president, remained an influential figure in the party, buoyed by his populist “Bossku” persona.
As it stands, Umno faces three options for the next general election: go solo, join Perikatan Nasional, or sink or swim with Pakatan Harapan.
The first option is political suicide, especially in multi-cornered contests. With the non-Malay electorate likely to snub Umno given the antics of some of its leaders, going it alone would be setting the party up for failure.
The second scenario — joining PN — would force Umno to contend with its splinter party, Bersatu. But in reality, both would be dependent on PAS’s performance at the polls.
This means that even without pursuing the prime ministership, PAS could still act as puppet master, with policies introduced in states it presently governs potentially elevated into federal law.
In such a scenario, Umno and Bersatu MPs may hold ministerial titles, but in practice they would be lapdogs.
The third option, remaining with PH, offers Umno the best chance of retaining power with some semblance of respect. If PKR falters at the next polls, an Umno leader could even be named prime minister.
Ultimately, Umno’s future hinges on who its dance partner will be.
Yet the elephant in the room remains Najib. Convicted again for corruption and denied house arrest, a full pardon could provide Umno with a lifeline. The question is not only whether Najib should be pardoned, but when — before GE16 or after?
Equally important is the narrative Umno will deploy to secure that pardon.
I personally think Najib’s pardon should only come after GE16. Whether with PN or PH, Umno will likely still be part of government.
If Najib is pardoned before GE16, he would become a thorn in Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s side, as Zahid’s enemies would rally behind Najib to push for his ouster.
As for the narratives, Umno will likely argue three points:
- That Arab donors exist, with witnesses to confirm it.
- That Najib was made a convenient scapegoat in a scheme involving civil servants, politicians and businessmen.
- That fugitive financier Jho Low was the true mastermind whose disappearance made Najib the fall guy.
If properly narrated and amplified by influencers and cybertroopers, Malay sentiment could be whipped into a frenzy strong enough to make the king seriously consider a full pardon.
At the end of the day, both Umno and Najib may thrive and live happily ever after, but we, Malaysians, will find ourselves back at square one.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
