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CARLSBERG Brewery’s nine months of 2025 (9M25) results met RHB’s expectations, underpinned by robust quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) sales rebound and margin expansion.
While the excise duty hike effective November is negative to the sector, it could be already in the price, with the brewery stocks trading well below their historical mean.
Demand could be dented in the immediate term, but should normalise eventually. Margin expansion and premiumisation strategies will continue to be the primary drivers for earnings growth and high dividend payout.
Year-on-year (YoY), 9M25 revenue fell by 3% to MYR1.7 bil mainly due to the earlier timing of Lunar New Year in 2025 and cautious consumer sentiment.
That said, 9M25 core earnings grew 4% to MYR280 mil, with net margin expanding by 1ppt thanks to tight cost control and price increases.
QoQ, quarter three 2025 (3Q25) revenue jumped 19% to MYR583 mil, which the group attributed to frontloading ahead of the price increase in September.
In addition, Singapore sales and profit before tax (+26% and +88%) were boosted by trade offer adjustments relating to the prior years’ operations.
“We foresee frontloading to have occurred in October before the higher excise duty kicked in November,” said RHB.
With the volume expected to slow subsequently, RHB expects the breweries to intensify their marketing efforts via consumer engagements, value promotion etc in stimulating consumption amidst higher selling prices.
Meanwhile, the government’s commitment to Visit Malaysia Year 2026 could drive higher volumes by accelerating the robust tourist arrival momentum.
On top of that, we expect profit margin to remain elevated underpinned by the price increase in “3Q25, continuous efficiency gains, and favourable input costs and FX,” said RHB.
Together with the effective clampdown efforts to contain contraband trade, they expect the generous dividend payout to continue. Risks to RHB’s recommendation include unfavourable regulatory changes and a major loss of market share. —Nov 14, 2025
Main image: klook
The post Visit Malaysia 2026 should drive higher volumes for Carlsberg Brewery first appeared on Focus Malaysia.
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