HLIB sees stronger upstream earnings for planters on higher FFB output, palm product prices

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HONG Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) anticipates planters to register another set of decent performance in the upcoming results season, on the back of broadly higher FFB output and palm product prices.

Higher palm product prices and seasonally higher fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output will likely lift most planters’ upstream earnings in the upcoming results season.

During quarter three 2025 (3Q25), six of the seven planters under HLIB’s coverage posted positive quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) output growth, supported by seasonally higher cropping pattern.

Broadly higher FFB output, firmer palm product prices, coupled with stable production costs, are expected to drive sequential improvement in upstream earnings among planters.

Overall performance at the downstream segment will likely remain subdued in 3Q25, on the back of ongoing intense competition and overcapacity of refineries in Indonesia that continue to suppress refining margins, and elevated feedstock costs coupled with weak demand in the oleochemical sub-segment.

5 out of 7 planters registered mildly higher FFB output in 3Q25, while GENP and HSP registered YoY declines of -3.6% and 15.1% respectively.

Broadly higher FFB output and palm product prices in particular, PK, coupled with lower crude palm oil (CPO) production cost will likely lift planters’ upstream earnings in 3Q25.

Downstream performance will likely remain subdued due to similar reasons mentioned above.

Year-to-date, CPO price averaged at RM4,351/mt. HLIB maintains their 2025-26 CPO price assumptions RM4,300/mt and RM4,200/mt, respectively.

Key re-rating catalysts to their CPO price assumptions include:

(i) worse-than-expected La Nina conditions (which could in turn weigh on production of palm and soybean (in particularly, South America).

(ii) smooth implementation of B50 biodiesel mandate in Indonesia.

HLIB maintains Overweight on the sector, supported by a constructive outlook for CPO prices over the near to medium term.

“We prefer planters with greater exposure to Malaysian upstream operations, given their high leverage to CPO prices and minimal exposure to land confiscation risks,” said HLIB. —Nov 4, 2025

Main image: UkrAgro Consult

The post HLIB sees stronger upstream earnings for planters on higher FFB output, palm product prices first appeared on Focus Malaysia.

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