OPEC+ adjusts strategy to protect prices amid looming 2026 oil glut

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OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil output in December by 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with the increases anticipated for October and November.

Additionally, the group has decided to pause any further increases in the first quarter of next year as it aims to regain market share in light of growing concerns about a potential supply glut in 2026.

Historically, the first quarter has been the weakest for oil prices, and this pause is viewed as a proactive approach to manage the market and protect prices from the expected oversupply.

Since April of this year, OPEC+ has raised its output targets by approximately 2.9 mil barrels per day (mb/d), which accounts for about 2.7% of the global oil supply.

“Looking ahead, downside risks are expected to persist due to an increasing supply surplus that demand may struggle to absorb fully. Oil supply is projected to rise by an additional 2.4 mil barrels per day in 2026,” said MBSB Research.

This excess supply is anticipated to come from both non-OPEC and OPEC+ producers, with each group increasing production by 1.2 mb/d. On the demand side, growth is expected to be modest, with only a 0.7 mb/d increase projected for 2026. Economic growth in major oil-consuming countries like China and India is expected to decline that year.

Specifically, China’s growth rate is projected to drop from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, while India’s rate is expected to decrease from 6.6% in 2025 to 6.2% in 2026. Additionally, the IMF forecasts global growth for 2026 to be 3.1%, down by one percentage point from projections for 2025.

Despite the anticipated supply-demand imbalance, several factors may help support oil prices above USD60. These include China’s efforts at oil stockpiling, a possible reduction in Russian product supplies due to recent US sanctions, new EU restrictions on importing products derived from Russian feedstocks, and recent refinery capacity closures.

“We expect the Brent crude oil price to trade in the range between USD60 and USD65 per barrel in 2026,” said MBSB. —Nov 3, 2025

Main image: PWC

The post OPEC+ adjusts strategy to protect prices amid looming 2026 oil glut first appeared on Focus Malaysia.

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