Loan growth holds steady as both household and business segments expand in September: Kenanga

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SEPTEMBER 2025 system loans grew by 5.5%, within Kenanga Research’s 5.5% target for 2025 as both household and business segments similarly expanded year-on-year (YoY).

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, business loans (+0.7%) gained from greater working capital needs in the construction and financial service industries.

Meanwhile, the household loans (+0.3%) saw a stronger pick-up in residential mortgages (+0.4%), likely ahead of upcoming festivities during the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026.

“We expect this seasonal tailwind to continue in the coming months, with vehicle financing benefitting from more aggressive promotional campaigns, and retail-related industries accelerating expansion plans,” said Kenanga.

Sep 2025 deposits grew 4.0% YoY, with current account savings account (CASA) (+2.9%) ratio rising to 29.5%, being the highest level this year (Aug 2025: 28.9%; Sep 2024: 28.6%).

The improvement was likely driven by maturing fixed deposits not being rolled over, reflecting depositors’ preference for liquidity in the current rate environment.

Notably, fixed deposits with 3-6 month tenures increased by 4%, suggesting both banks and depositors view this segment as the most optimal point for balancing yield and liquidity considerations in preparation of heightened year-end spending from both household and business segments.

“We also noted that foreign currency deposits rose 4.4%, likely supported by the strengthening MYR, which improves purchasing power and encourages foreign currency accumulation,” said Kenanga.

Also, Kenanga maintains Overweight on the banking sector. The encouraging quarter three calendar year 2025 (3QCY25) advance GDP growth of 5.2% appears to be reflected in banking sector’s loan demand, and Kenanga expects this momentum to carry into the seasonally stronger 4QCY25 period as consumers and businesses ramp up activity ahead of the year-end.

Looking toward CY26, Kenanga expects the banking system to remain resilient amid potential headwinds from the full implementation of the 19% US import tariffs, which could weigh on import-driven industries. Conversely, a stronger MYR may temper earnings growth for export-oriented sectors, including manufacturers.

Taking these factors into account, Kenanga forecasts CY26 GDP growth at 4.2%, which also informs their more subdued loans growth expectation of 5.0%-5.5% for the year.

That said, there could be upside bias to their targets, as trade policies may shift more favourable amid the 19% reciprocal tariff imposed by the US. We continue to see advancements in the country’s infrastructure landscape which could lead to further investment inflows in the near-term while supporting our manufacturing sectors. —Nov 3, 2025

Main image: The Malaysian Reserve

The post Loan growth holds steady as both household and business segments expand in September: Kenanga first appeared on Focus Malaysia.

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